If Fransburg loses to Batavia, then it opens up a world of opportunity for other teams to make the playoffs. The tiebreaker in this situation would be points scored. There are 16 scenarios to explore:
Scenario 1: Madtown, Batavia, Sullivan’s Island, North Point, DownState, and Oregon win
In this scenario, the three 6-7 teams battling for the #6 seed would be the Chitons, (r)EvoLUtion, and CornChutes. The Chitons have scored about 52 points more than the (r)EvoLUtion, and the CornChutes are about 43 points behind Fransburg.
The likely playoff team would be the Chitons.
Scenario 2: Madtown, Batavia, Sullivan’s Island, North Point, and Sweet Home win
We have the same 6-7 teams in this scenario, with the Chitons again having the edge.
Scenario 3: Madtown, Batavia, Sullivan’s Island, Kamino, DownState, and Oregon win
This outcome would result in a tiebreaker between Fransburg, Kamino, and DownState. Kamino has outscored Fransburg by about 84 points, so would likely get the nod. DownState is still very much behind in scoring.
Scenario 4: Madtown, Batavia, Sullivan’s Island, Kamino, DownState, and Sweet Home win
The same as above, with the Bounty Hunters likely going to the playoffs.
Scenario 5: Madtown, Batavia, Bestine, North Point, DownState, and Oregon win
If this were to come to pass, then the 6-7 teams would be Fransburg, Bestine, North Point, and DownState. Again, the Chitons would edge the (r)EvoLUtion as they lead by roughly 52 points. DownState follows, then Bestine. Neither team has much of a shot.
Scenario 6: Madtown, Batavia, Bestine, North Point, DownState, and Sweet Home win
The same as above, with the Chitons likely going to the playoffs.
Scenario 7: Madtown, Batavia, Bestine, Kamino DownState, and Oregon win
The teams to sort out would be Fransburg, Sullivan’s Island, Bestine (Kamino would be the division winner in this scenario), and DownState. The Silvertips have a slight edge in scoring over Fransburg. However, they only lead by 9 points. Bestine isn’t too far behind Fransburg (10 points) or Sullivan’s Island (19 points). All hell could break loose in this scenario. Unscientifically, I put the odds as such:
Silvertips: 34%
Fransburg: 30%
Bestine: 25%
DownState: 1%
The computer explodes: 10%
Scenario 8: Madtown, Batavia, Bestine, Kamino, DownState, and Sweet Home win
Same as above, with a slight lean for the Silvertips, but very nearly equal chances for the (r)EvoLUtion and Banthas.
Scenario 9: Batavia, Kensington, Sullivan’s Island, North Point, DownState, and Oregon win
The teams in it would be Fransburg, North Point, and DownState. Just as in scenarios 1 and 2, the Chitons would be the favorites to go to the playoffs.
Scenario 10: Batavia, Kensington, Sullivan’s Island, North Point, DownState, and Sweet Home win
Same as above, with the Chitons likely going.
Scenario 11: Batavia, Kensington, Sullivan’s Island, Kamino, DownState, and Oregon win
We’d have Fransburg, Kamino, and DownState in the mix, just like scenarios 3 and 4. Kamino is all but certain to go in this situation.
Scenario 12: Batavia, Kensington, Sullivan’s Island, Kamino, DownState, and Sweet Home win
See above. The Bounty Hunters get the nod.
Scenario 13: Batavia, Kensington, Bestine, North Point, DownState, and Oregon win
This scenario gives us Fransburg, Bestine, North Point, and DownState. Given scoring, the other teams would have to do a lot to overcome the Chitons.
Scenario 14: Batavia, Kensington Bestine, North Point, DownState, and Sweet Home win
Same as above, give North Point the love.
Scenario 15: Batavia, Kensington, Bestine, Kamino, DownState, and Oregon win
This scenario yields Fransburg, Sullivan’s Island, Bestine, and DownState. It’s the same as scenarios 7 and 8, and each of three teams have a pretty good chance (in this order:) Silvertips, (r)EvoLUtion, Banthas.
Scenario 16: Batavia, Kensington, Bestine, Kamino, DownState, and Sweet Home win
See above. ‘Tips, ‘LUtion, ‘Thas
So, to summarize, I will give my estimate as to the odds that any of the following teams will grab the #6 seed and make the playoffs. Remember, the only way any of these scenarios could come to pass is if Fransburg loses.
North Point Chitons: 50%
Kamino Bounty Hunters: 25%
Sullivan’s Island Silvertips: 8.5%
Fransburg (r)EvoLUtion: 7.5%
Bestine Banthas: 6.3%
DownState CornChutes: 2.7%
© 2012, Josh Hammond. All rights reserved.
Oh, right – for some reason I thought that there would only be two teams after the division winners when I wrote my article. That’s cool. Not that I’ll win this week, but still cool. What’s even less cool is that week 8 loss. Damn.
Ha, nice Tecmo Whine, which will guarantee a victory for you! You have an opening, since I didn’t go with my gut and choose William Moore against a passing team. Oh well.
I wish I had a better shot at the division, but that brutal loss to Stukas and giving Oregon one of their 2 wins has really hurt.
Ha! Scenario 16: ‘Tips, ‘LUtion, ‘Thas!