Many pundits are calling tomorrow night’s NFL draft class historically bad. In particular, some believe that none of the quarterbacks in these draft even measure up to Blaine Gabbert; others believe that no quarterback is worthy of a first round grade.
That got me thinking about the rookie QBs that we’ve had since 2010, when the Immersion first started. We have had some pretty good quarterbacks in the last two seasons, which is probably not going to be the norm.
Below, I have listed the rookie quarterbacks that actually started at least one NFL game during their rookie season. To look at a full size PDF, click here. You can also click on the picture below for a larger version.
I have rated the quarterbacks with the following “Hammond Grades:”
Superstar: These quarterbacks have the potential to finish in the top-5 in scoring any given year.
Starter: These quarterbacks have the potential to finish in the top-12 in scoring in any given year; there are 12 teams, so you hope to have one of the top-12 quarterbacks.
Backup: Not terrible. They have the potential to give you a couple of nice spot starts. But why would you start a QB who isn’t going to be among the top-12 in the league?
Bum: Not worthy of a roster spot, unless it’s a young guy waiting in the wings that you can stash on your practice squad.
2010 wasn’t a particularly good rookie crop of quarterbacks. And remember, Sam Bradford was taken first overall in the NFL draft. He earns a Hammond Grade of “Backup.” The rest of the QBs that year aren’t worth mentioning.
By contrast, 2012 was a veritable jubilee of quarterbacks. With three QBs earning Superstar grades, it may very well be one of the best classes ever. Our owners knew it, too. Luck went first overall, and RGIII went third. Russell Wilson was drafted at the end of the second round (2.12) and became a surprise sensation.
It seemed as though owners figured some things out after the 2011 debacle, in which Cam Newton wasn’t selected until 6th overall (players like Mark Ingram, Daniel Thomas, and Ryan Williams went before Cam…check out the terrible draft report from that season.)
So what will owners do this year? Though it is perhaps true that none of the QBs in this class deserve a first round grade, it is doubtful that all 32 teams will lay off a QB in the first round. Will it be Geno Smith, who is often compared to Cam Newton and RGIII? Will all of the fuss about Ryan Nassib (mostly coming from the Bills) really amount to anything? Remember, Nassib was a 2nd-team All-Big East player. Think about that. The Big East is a terrible football conference. And Nassib wasn’t even the best QB in the conference. How are you going to draft him in the top-10? And of course, in the final hours leading up to the draft, the Bills are pretending that they are eyeing Matt Barkley.
This seems more like a Vince Young / Matt Leinart kind of year than an Andrew Luck / RGIII kind of year. Know what I mean? It’s hard to imagine any Immersion owner forking over first round money on any of these guys. But things get significantly cheaper in the second round…
© 2013, Josh Hammond. All rights reserved.
Look at me with the rare 2012 Hammond Grade hat trick!
And the salaries reflect that…except for Russell, of course. That guy is a steal!
They ain’t no Tom Brady!