Relegation Watch: Week 7

Fransburg – We’re back with the 2nd installment of Relegation Watch.  As you know, this article isn’t about the excitement of promotion, but rather the anguish of being dumped a division.  With another 3 weeks in the books, the future is coming more into focus as we here at Relegation Watch put odds on every team’s chances at relegation for the 2018 season.

Gold Division
Marshfield Pirates (5-1; 5% chance of relegation) – Since we last met, the Pirates have rattled off 3 straight wins, including a big one this week against Fransburg. In doing so, they also became the top team in scoring and the top All-Play squad.  Their trade of Amari Cooper for DeVante Adams isn’t looking so hot right now, but other than that, this team is rollings.  So why 5%? Because anything can happen, that’s why.
Previous = 15%

Culver City Krackens (3-3; 15% chance of relegation) – “Franssen, you fucking Techmo-whiner, there’s no way the Krackens have less of a shot a relegation than you do!” Perhaps, but those paying close attention might see a different angle. Since the last post, when the Krackens were 0-3, Culver City has won 3 straight, including an important beating of the Colliders in Week 6. They’ve moved up close to Fransburg in total points and they’re winning games despite facing the 2nd most points against of any team in the league. Anyone looking at their lineup right now sees a tough team to beat.
Previous = 35%

Fransburg (r)EvoLUtion (5-1; 20% chance of relegation) – Fransburg continued to roll in weeks 4 and 5,  taking care of business outside of the division.  But week 6 was unkind.  Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone after scoring just 0.5 points and may be done for the year. As of this writing, that wimpy output (also, thanks for nothing TY Hilton), led to a narrow loss to the Pirates (come on, NFL give Bosa a TFL or something!). Further darkening the Fransburg cloud, ‘Zeke Elliot’s suspension is back on for now, meaning 6 weeks w/o their top RB. It’s not all doom-and-gloom for (r)EvoLUtion fans, though. Kwon Alexander and Ezekiel Ansah will end their holdouts after week 7, bringing needed firepower to the defensive side of the ball. The other thing working in Fransburg’s favor is that the Colliders are a full 4 games back with 7 to play. Of course, that’s pretty much how Hammond likes it.
Previous = 10%

Batavia Colliders (1-5; 60% chance of relegation) – The Colliders have lost every game since our last article, but all is not horrible in Batavia.  First and foremost, they’re scoring points. Week 6 was a boom week even in a loss; if they can start scoring over 150 points on a regular basis, this team is going to win games at the same time that Fransburg is likely to lose games. If they get unlucky – as they did in week 6 – however, it’s game over; there’s just too little room for error after digging a deep hole to start the season.
Previous = 40%

Silver Division
Madtown Marauders (5-1; 10% chance of relegation) – The Cardiac Kids! The Marauders won their week 4 and week 5 games by a combined 3 points.  Had they lost those games, this would be a very different ranking.  But they didn’t.  And after a solid win in week 6, Madtown is 5-1 with a commanding 3 game lead over the relegation-risk Chitons. Their close wins are make it hard to have more confidence, as does the loss of Watt, but this team still looks good and their risk of relegation is low.
Previous = 20%

Bestine Banthas (4-2; 25% chance of relegation) – I admit it, this ranking makes me nervous. Like Fransburg and Madtown, Bestine lost a key cog since our last ranking. OBJ is dead and their other top WR is Jordy Nelson who may not be as amazing sans Aaron Rodgers. So depth is an issue. Losing to their division rival in week 6, Cleveland, is another blow to Bestine’s confidence. I still think they’re in pretty good shape to avoid relegation. Promotion is looking more dicey, but that’s a different article.
Previous = 20% 

Cleveland Battery (3-3; 30% chance of relegation) – The Battery have come to life over the last three weeks, going 2-1 to get back to 0.500 on the year. What’s better for them is that the Chitons have dropped two in a row, meaning that the Battery are out of the Silver Division cellar.  What they really need to feel solid is some actual QB play. Maybe Luck will come back and drive Cleveland to the playoffs…it could happen!
Previous = 30%

North Point Chitons (2-4; 35% chance of relegation) – The Chitons are just not playing well on offense right now. They have the 9th best QB, the 9th best TE, the 14th best RB and the 21st best WR. Tough to win games with those being your top rankings, even with a relatively robust defense. That said, there’s no reason to panic yet if you’re a fan of North Point. They’re only a game back of Cleveland and two back of Bestine. Neither of those squads is actually blowing the Chitons away in scoring, either. Week 7’s game is a big one.  A win over the Banthas is a must for this squad to have a chance at the playoffs and a loss would put them in real danger of being relegated. My guess is that they win and Madtown wins this week.  That would put Bestine, Cleveland, and North Point in a 3-way rumble down the stretch where one team makes the playoffs, one team is safe, and one team meets up with some new pals in the Bronze Division.
Previous = 30%

Okay, that’s where we stand at the halfway point. Tight ballgames, injuries, and scoring hijinx will no doubt continue to shake things up over the next three weeks.  Installment #3 of the series will happen after week 9.  See you then!

© 2017, Adam Franssen. All rights reserved.