Relegation Watch: Week 11

Fransburg – We’re back with the 3rd installment of Relegation Watch.  As you know, this article isn’t about the excitement of promotion, but rather the anguish of being dumped a division.  With

another 4 weeks in the books, the future is focused in the Gold Division and cloudy as possible in the Silver Division.  Regardless, we here at Relegation Watch put odds on every team’s chances at relegation for the 2018 season.

Gold Division
Fransburg (r)EvoLUtion (10-0; 0% chance of relegation) – Lots has happened since I last posted. First of all, the (r)EvoLUtion DIDN’T lose to the Pirates, keeping them at 6-0. They then spent the next 4 games winning despite the absence of Aaron Rodgers. In Week 8, Fransburg clinched a playoff spot; they will not be relegated. In Week 10, Fransburg won the division and secured the #1 seed in the playoffs. Also, there’s a chance that Aaron Rodgers will be back for that Week 15 game, perhaps mitigating the loss of ‘Zeke.  Life is good.
Previous = 20%

Marshfield Pirates (7-3; 0% chance of relegation) – The Pirates were on losing end of a Thursday scoring update against Fransburg. As of this writing (1:30pm on Sunday), Marshfield is trying to avenge that loss. Though they’re already locked in the playoffs and have zero chance at relegation, it would be big for them to win this week and secure the #2 overall seed in the playoffs.
Previous = 5%

Culver City Krackens (5-5; 33% chance of relegation) – The Krackens are in good shape, but they haven’t punched their playoff ticket yet.  A win and they’re in. However, if they lose to the Colliders in Week 11 (I’m cheating – after a huge Thursday night, Hammond’s squad is up big on Culver City), Batavia will hold the tie-breaker and COULD pass the Krackens right at the finish line. After Batavia, the Krackens face the top two teams in the league in weeks 12 and 13, so a win isn’t a given. They may need to rely on the Pirates and (r)EvoLUtion to beat Batavia for them to make the big dance.
Previous = 15%

Batavia Colliders (2-8; 66% chance of relegation) – Could Batavia actually make the playoffs with a crappy 5-8 record? Yes, yes they could. It starts with a win over the Krackens right now in Week 11. If they lose they’re out, but a win means they’re still alive headed to the Rodgers-and-Elliott-less (r)EvoLUtion. That’s winnable.  Finally, they’d have to dispatch the Pirates. Frankly, I think that they can win the first two, but Marshfield may be one bridge too far.
Previous = 60%

Silver Division
Bestine Banthas (6-4; 20% chance of relegation) – This division.  Okay, 4 weeks ago I was worried about the ability of Bestine to overcome the injury to OBJ and the suckitude of Jordy’s QB. Yet here we are with the Banthas atop the Silver division and a two game edge over Chitions to avoid relegation. The Banthas just need a win this week to be totally safe from relegation – seems safe, right? That’s what I thought about the Marauders…
Previous = 25%

Madtown Marauders (5-5; 25% chance of relegation) – Really Matt? 4 straight losses after I called out 10% relegation chance? Terrible. Okay, so this team hasn’t scored a lot of points recently, but this week’s game against the Chitons is huge. If they win, they own the tie-breaker and a 2 game lead with two to go; they should be in. If they LOSE, however, Tom’s team boasts the tie-breaker and Madtown is only one game ahead with two to play. What to do…I predict (with little conviction) that the Marauders score enough to keep ahead of the Chitons and avoid relegation.
Previous = 10%

Cleveland Battery (5-5; 25% chance of relegation) – The Battery are who we thought they were – a .500 team. They’re near the bottom of the league in scoring and All-Play record.  Still, they sit a game ahead of the Chitons and are in control of their future. Win out and they make the playoffs (perhaps even promoted), lose out and they’re going to be relegated. A more likely scenario is a split and another season in the Silver Division.
Previous = 30%

North Point Chitons (4-6; 30% chance of relegation) – In my last post about the Chitons, I wrote about a 3-way rumble to end the season. Four weeks later and we have a 4-way rumble! With 3 games to go, the Chitons are bringing up the caboose but are only 2 games out of promotion. To live the dream and avoid relegation, they’ll first need to defeat the Marauders. Even if they lose, they face the Battery and Banthas to close out the season, meaning that a run out of the relegation seat is totally doable.
Previous = 30%

Bronze Division
Holly Hawks (8-2; 0% chance of relegation) – Bonus news! To the surprise of no one, the Hawks have already clinched promotion and will be playing in the Silver Division next season. They’ll look back fondly at the days of whipping up on the Silvertips, Gridiron Gang, and Dream Team. What IS surprising is that they’ve gone a solid 2-2 outside of division, besting both of their Silver Division opponents (Chitons & Battery). The big question is how well will the Hawks fare in the big dance. With a 6th seed in their future, they’ll need to get by a Gold Division foe in the first and second rounds if they hope to pull off the improbable championship from the Bronze Division. FWIW, if this were a playoff odds article (it is not), the Hawks would probably be second behind the Pirates as of right now; I’m a believer. 

That’s it for this season of Relegation Watch.  If I try to bang out one more article, it will just be to recap what happened in these final three weeks of the season.  Enjoy the games!

© 2017, Adam Franssen. All rights reserved.