Relegation Watch 2018 – Week 7

Fransburg – We’re halfway through the 2018 fantasy season. How depressing is that? Well, I’ll tell you, it’s even more depressing at the bottom of the divisional rankings. Like last year, this series is here to focus on the fears and anxieties of the owners and fans of teams that are at risk of dropping a division. Readers can feast on the delicious tears of the weak like so many dementors.

As a reminder, last year’s embarrassing failures were the Batavia Colliders (Gold Division) and Madtown Marauders (Silver Division) and, of course, everyone in the Bronze Division except for the eventual champion Holley Hawks who are currently being exposed for the lucky bastards that they were in 2017.

Finally, a reminder that we here at Relegation Watch are working around the clock to put accurate odds on every team’s chances at relegation for the 2019 season.

Gold Division
Marshfield Pirates (5-0; 5% chance of relegation) – Marshfield is undefeated after the first round of divisional play and two beatings against the hapless Bronze Division. They’re second in scoring overall and are tied for the best All-Play record. I find it hard to believe that they’ll actually be relegated at this point, but Momma said, “Never say, never!” and so I won’t. This week. They’re putting the hammer down on the Silvertips in Week 6, though, putting them 5 games up with 7 to go. This team will be in the playoffs.
Previous % = N/A

Culver City Krackens (4-1; 15% chance of relegation) – This team looks strong and has earned their current record with LeVeon Bell riding the pine. If Bell is welcomed back with open arms (as Big Ben “joked”), the Krakens will be in a great position to make a late run and avoid any chance at being relegated. Peeking once again at the Week 6 results, it looks like Gold Division newcomer Bestine is going to beat Culver City this week which keeps the Krackens’ relegation chances above 10%.
Previous % = N/A

Bestine Banthas (2-3; 20% chance of relegation) – Banthas owner Ryan Lindsay has been hustling from the moment this team got promoted to the Gold Division. Wheeling and dealing trades saw the departure and return of Tyreek Hill, the league’s MOST DANGEROUS WEAPON. All that work has them as the 5^th best team in the league in terms of scoring and all-play. However, Bestine has also struggled in their new role as a Gold Division team, losing in Week 5 to a mediocre Silver Division squad (Battery) and only beating the Silvertips in their division. They’ll need to be able to overcome the Pirates and Krackens to make a serious run at the championship. Good news is on the horizon, though, as they’re probably going to beat the Krackens in Week 6.
Previous % = N/A

Sullivan’s Island Silvertips (1-4; 60% chance of relegation) – During the offseason, Weldin and Franssen swapped teams. You might remember that. Last year’s Fransburg squad was 12-1 and an unlucky break from the championship. This year, Weldin’s team has been struck down by injuries (Fournette, Thompson, Hilton, Doyle) and more bad luck. For all the crap Weldin’s been given, his trades have worked out to this point:

1. Kirk Cousins is outscoring Aaron Rodgers (pending Monday night)
2. Robert Woods, Julian Edelman, Jordy Nelson, and a 2^nd for Mike Evans is looking downright brilliant.
3. A 1^st rounder for Calais Campbell…well, they can’t all be hits (though Campbell is a top 10 DE at the moment).

If there’s a criticism, it’s that Weldin has been far too slow to react to all of the injuries. Players with “I” and “O” designation have littered his active roster all season and he’s only managed two free-agent pickups in 6 weeks (for context, the Banthas have 18 players acquired from free agency on their current roster, the Pirates have 13, and the Krackens have 6). The Gold Division is too competitive to set and forget one’s roster.

So what does this all mean for the ‘Tips going forward? I think it means relegation. They’re only a game behind Bestine at the moment, but that could be two by the end of Week 6’s Monday night game. I just don’t see them getting healthy enough to compete against the stacked talent of the Gold Division down the stretch without a complete turn-around in the front office’s approach to the league.
Previous % = N/A

Silver Division
North Point Chitons (3-2; 10% chance of relegation) – As usual, the Chitons are getting it done on defense. With 60+ point players at every level, this side of the ball is doing the heaving lifting. On offense, they’ve been squeaking by with James Connor and surprising QB play, but owner Tom Rothfus has to be concerned about the second half of the season. A trade to add some WR firepower could be welcome. Fortunately for them, the Hawks (whom they are currently trouncing in week 6) are WAY out of their depth, providing a 3-game cushion with 7 to go.
Previous % = N/A

Batavia Colliders (3-2; 20% chance of relegation) – Curiously, the Colliders have a worse all-play record than the Chitons despite scoring more points. What makes this battle for the Silver Division lead even more interesting is that the Colliders are getting it done on the offensive side of the ball. A Yin to the Chitons’ Yang, if you will. Overall, last year’s Gold Division failures have done a nice job of keeping themselves in contention for promotion back to the Bigs. The week 6 matchup with the Battery is kind of a big deal in terms of promotion, though. Cleveland needs 24 points from Aaron Rodgers on Monday night to pull off the win. Should Cleveland prevail, Week 7’s tilt with the Chitons will have the feeling of do-or-die for the Colliders in terms of promotion. If the Colliders hold on, there will be a bit more breathing room going forward.
Previous % = N/A

Cleveland Battery (2-3; 30% chance of relegation) – The Battery are in a tough spot. They have Rodgers, Gurley, and…not a whole lot else on offense. On the other side of the ball, their DE’s are solid and their rookie S is balling out (as the kids say), but there clearly needs to be more production if this team wants to climb the divisional ladder. Distressingly, they also have under $2 in cap to work with. Ben is an adept wheeler and dealer, something I expect to see soon if Cleveland is to avoid relegation.  Previous % = N/A

Holley Hawks (1-4; 40% chance of relegation) – Remember when the Hawks reached up to take Kareem Hunt and it turned out to be brilliant once Spencer Ware went down with an injury? And how Alex Smith got ridiculously hot at the end of the season, leading the Hawks to the ‘Ship? That was amazing. But the 2017 season turned out to be lightning in a bottle; a bottle whose cork was pulled out, in part, by two trades with the Pirates:

1. Hawks give up 2018 pick 1.02 and Michael Thomas for 2018 pick 1.13, Devante Adams, Michael Crabtree
2. Hawks give up 2018 pick 1.13 and Melvin Gordon for 2018 pick 1.02 and S Jamal Anderson.

Trade summary: Hawks get Adams (14.4ppg), Crabtree (8.5ppg), and $5.50 S Adams (11.6ppg); Pirates get RFA Michael Thomas (14.4ppg), Melvin Gordon (19.6ppg), and a $1 Safety off of waivers (12.5ppg).

That, my friends, is getting Franssen-ed. The Pirates are undefeated. The Hawks are in running for relegation. There’s still hope in Holley, however. With the Battery running cold as well, it’s not a lock that the Hawks will be relegated. This team is rich with talent on the offensive side of the ball and that may help carry this squad past Cleveland to cling to a second year in the Silver Division.
Previous % = N/A

Bronze Division
Oregon Dream Team (4-1; 40% chance of promotion) – Okay, so this is cheating in that there is no relegation in the Bronze, so we don’t actually get a section. Still, shout-out to the much-maligned Dream Team. Tim’s squad has had a great start to the season, sparked by their brilliant first overall pick. Now, everyone knew that Barkley was the guy, but Tim no doubt passed on a ton of offers to hold onto Barkley. It is also impressive that they’ve won during a stretch w/o Carson Wentz. The question is, can this team continue its hot streak? 

Madtown Marauders (3-2 50% promotion) – Franssen, explain how Madtown has a better chance than Oregon to advance? Why you gotta hate? Um, check out the points scored, Bro. Madtown has scored the most points in the league. If anyone is going to pull a Holley Hawks, it’s the Marauders.

Linn County Lumberjacks (2-3 5% promotion) – Love the team name change and not just because it makes me think of Monty Python’s Lumberjack song. Unfortunately, that sense of fun and adventure doesn’t translate to the squad; they’re not scoring particularly well and there doesn’t appear to be an obvious reason that that will change in the coming weeks. It’s not all doom and gloom, however, since a win in Week 6 will tie the ‘Jacks with Madtown and they’ll actually boast the best division record. So give the guy a better percentage, Franssen! I just can’t – they’re scoring only the second most points in the league. 

Fransburg (r)EvoLUtion (0-5 5% promotion) – 5% chance? Freaking homer. 

That’s all for this round. I’m glad to have gotten this penned during my Fall Break and hope to get a chance to do another installment in a couple of weeks. In the meantime, enjoy the games and good luck!

© 2018, Adam Franssen. All rights reserved.