Relegation Watch 2020 – Week 4

Fransburg – Hi guys! It’s been a while, but I’m back with “Relegation Watch” for the 2020 season. This year has been a [insert any negative imagery], so let’s see if we can maximize our fantasy football fun to make things bearable.

This Week 4 edition comes after the first round of divisional games. Each team has now had an opportunity to measure up against those trying to kick them out of the division (or keep them in the Bronze). As a reminder, last year’s big freaking losers were the Batavia Colliders (Gold Division) and North Point Chitons (Silver Division). In the Bronze Division the Holley Hawks advanced for no apparent reason.

Since it’s so early in the season, I’ve approached this edition of “Relegation Watch” as a “Steaming Hot Take” edition, which was fun to write. So without further ado, here are the first cracks at the odds of every team being relegated for next season:

GOLD DIVISION
Culver City Krackens (2-1; 0% chance of relegation) – Hot take #1 right off the bat! 0%?!? Should their probability REALLY be 0%? In the year of Covid, probably not. However, the Krackens have two things going for them in a big way. Thing #1: They’re really good. After 3 weeks they have the most points and a solid victory over the Pirates. Thing #2: The GIMB are off to a terrible start and appear to have little to no shot of staying in the division.
Previous % = N/A

Bestine Banthas (1-2; 10% chance of relegation) – So we quickly hit my hottest take of the whole article: the Banthas as 2^nd best team in the division. They’ve already lost 2 of 3, so what’s your damage, Franssen? As you all know, I’m an analytics guy and appreciate things like points scored, potential points, and all-play wins. The Banthas surpass the Pirates in all three categories to date. Despite that, the Pirates have the better Power Rank and Alternate Power Rank, which makes this take hot.
Previous % = N/A

Marshfield Pirates (2-1; 15% chance of relegation) – Remember everything I just said about the Banthas surpassing the Pirates? Well, you may have noticed that Marshfield is doing it w/o Christian McCaffrey and Michael Thomas right now. So we can be real for a second and acknowledge that they’re probably going to be a force down the stretch and easily remain in the Gold Division.
Previous % = N/A

Tooz Town GIMB (1-2; 75% chance of relegation) – Just to be clear, the GIMB are off to a bad start. Like, real bad. They’re currently 10^th in the league in All-Play record, 8^th in Points Scored, and 4^th in the Gold Division in chances of advancing. It’s not all Coach Matzusak’s fault, though. While last year’s 1^st round pick, Kyler Murray is a stud, this year’s RB Swift hasn’t hit his stride and DE Young is hurt. Add in AJ Brown’s injury and you have a rough start to the year. Though the defense looks robust, a team without viable RB and WR simply won’t survive the rigors of the Gold Division. Want another hot take? After they drop to the Silver Division for the 2021 season, it’s looking a lot like they’ll sink to the Bronze Division for 2022. Boom.
Previous % = N/A

SILVER DIVISION
Batavia Colliders (2-1; 0% chance of relegation) – Aww Man, this can’t be a hot take if I’ve already put the Krackens at 0%. Well, anyway, freaking men among boys situation here in the Silver Division. They’re scoring 19 points per game more than 2^nd in the Division (Hawks) and FORTY THREE points per game more than 4^th in the division (Battery). Hot Take: the 2020 edition of Batavia has a better chance of winning it all than remaining in the Silver Division.
Previous % = N/A

Holley Hawks (2-1; 10% chance of relegation) – Hawks fans have to be excited. After somehow beating out ODT to advance, the Hawks are playing really good ball in the Silver Division. The dominance of their RBs has carried them early, but this is a team that has depth throughout the roster. While Holley has virtually no chance of advancing to the Gold Division this year thanks to the Colliders, they can sit comfortably w/o worrying about relegation and focus on making the playoffs. They’ve been dangerous once making the Big Dance, so don’t rule them out of the championship discussion!
Previous % = N/A

Madtown Marauders (1-2; 20% chance of relegation) – Madtown has already lost two games, but I’m not super worried about their season-long chances. They probably should have been the team to advance to Gold last year, but it doesn’t matter as they would be getting trounced a la the GIMB. My 2^nd favorite storyline to follow all season will be the battle between Madtown and Holley for the 2^nd playoff spot in the division (following Fransburg is my favorite storyline). This team looks good on paper, so if the players put it all together, they absolutely have a shot.
Previous % = N/A

Cleveland Battery (1-2; 70% chance of relegation) – No surprises here. Ben has made a commitment to remaking his franchise, starting this season. Cleveland doesn’t have a lot of talent on the roster right now, but they have maneuvered so that they have a lot of cap space. Todd Gurley continues to be an anchor and one can only speculate on how long he remains on this roster. It’s not a hot take to point out that this team is a lock to be relegated, but it may be hot to point out that this rebuild will take until 2022 at best.
Previous % = N/A

BRONZE DIVISION
Fransburg (r)EvoLUtion  (2-1; 40% chance of promotion) – Ugh. A tough loss to the Chitons in Week 3 has the fanbase rocked. Poor coaching cost us the game in this one. Still, Fransburg’s roster looks robust and this team was competitive last year, too. Given the strength of the Dream Team, this season will come down to the last week(s) just like last season. Hot take: Fransburg finally edges out the competition to get promoted to the Silver Division.  
Previous % = N/A

Oregon Dream Team (1-2 35% promotion) – The Dream Team is really good. The only reason they’re behind Fransburg is that they got unlucky in a Week 1 scorefest and then lost Saquon. Will this team be able to overcome the loss of one of their best RBs? Yes! Will they be able to overcome other injuries this season (Sutton, Kittle, whatever else is in store in the coming weeks)…maybe. Hot take: this team gets unlucky enough to finish 2^nd when they SHOULD have been promoted last season and maybe SHOULD be promoted this season.
Previous % = N/A

North Point Chitons (2-1 20% promotion) – North Point fell to the Bronze for the first time this season after a dismal 2019 campaign. Managers aren’t going to be able to reverse those fortunes in one season in this league. Thus, it’s not really a hot take to say that the Chitons are going to spend 2020 in rebuild mode to try to be competitive in 2021. This team will continue to win games and occasionally be competitive, especially here in the Bronze, but they’re not a big threat to Fransburg or Oregon for promotion.
Previous % = N/A

Linn County Lumberjacks (1-2 5% promotion) – Hot take: Linn County’s best RB will be part of a 3-headed committee. Oh wait, that is absolutely going to happen since Dobbins (current leader), Akers, Breida, Michel, Peterson, and Vaugh are ALL part of messy committees. Until those get sorted out and/or the Lumberjacks make some major trades, this team is also on the 2021 train. Which is a good train to be on! Akers and Dobbins will take control of their backfields and Jesse will put that massive cap space to good use in the offseason when a lot of talented players are coming available. Actual hot take: Linn County advances out of the Bronze in 2021.
Previous % = N/A

Okay, that’s all for now. I hope you enjoyed my Hot Take edition of “Relegation Watch.” My goal is to be back after the next round of division games so that we have a clearer picture of what is ACTUALLY going on in the league.

© 2020, Adam Franssen. All rights reserved.