2023 Week 4 Preview

Winners

Batavia (3-0), Culver City (1-2), Cleveland (1-2), Marshfield (3-0), North Point (1-2), Madtown (1-2)

Four teams notched their first win of the season, including a surprising Madtown come-from-behind victory over the Oregon Dream Team. There are only two undefeated teams left (listed above) and the only unvictorious team is the Linn County Lumberjacks.

Prediction Record

Last week: 2-4 3-3

Overall: 8-10 (.444) 9-9 (.500)*

*THURSDAY REVERSAL

Ben made some dubious predictions and I believe is contractually obligated to eat a hat.

2024 Divisions (if they were made today)

Batavia, back on top, where they spent most of last season.

Week 4 Matchups

I cannot believe the Dolphins put up 70 points. Raheem “Must Start” Mostert and Devon “Divine” Achane scored 4 TDs each. I am in four leagues this year (too many, and I neglect the others in favor of this one.) In two of those leagues I played against Raheem Mostert. In two of those leagues I had Achane on the bench. Good times.

So the Dolphins are good. The Bears are very, very bad. If you want to do a deep dive, check out The QB School, by JT O’Sullivan. It’s fascinating and informative and if you watch an episode about Justin Fields you’ll learn how the Bears suck at coaching, suck at designing an offensive scheme, suck at pass protection. You’ll also learn that Fields sucks. But that might be because of all the aforementioned things. Unless they fire their coach and turn things around, the Bears are going to have the first pick again. They are orders of magnitude worse than the Texans, the Cardinals, and the Colts. They are going to lose twice to Minnesota, who haven’t won yet.

Here in Florida we’ve been getting slight hints of fall, but only briefly in the morning. You wake up and it’s 69 degrees (nice) and you feel like you can breathe. A couple hours later it’s 89 degrees and will stay that way until one in the morning. I went to my first Gators game this past weekend and it was a steam bath, even though the game started at 7:00 pm.

The Gators won but they were playing UNC Charlotte, who call themselves (erroneously) the 49ers. It was clear they were in a different class so the Gators should have won by a lot more than 22-7. There weren’t too many highlights (unless you like field goals) except for a one handed catch (you can skip to it if you want, it’s around the 50-second mark.)

The picture was before the game started and the stadium did fill up. They had more than 89,000 in attendance which was kind of crazy for a game against Charlotte. I suppose if I live here long enough I might drink the Gatorade (hell, I work for the University of Florida) but I’m not itching to get to another game. But it was still a fun thing to do and I can check it off my list.

I want to thank Ben for pinch hitting last week with the column. I thoroughly enjoyed reading someone else. If you want to get in on the action, sign up for one of the remaining weeks. It’s fun and profitable.*

*it may not be fun nor profitable, your mileage may vary.

On to the games!

Batavia (3-0) @ Oregon (2-1 3-0)

Here it is, the game you’ve been waiting for. It would have been spicier if Oregon hadn’t lost this week. EDIT: They didn’t. There was a Thursday reversal in Oregon’s favor. The Colliders have won two games in a row without Austin Ekeler but his replacement, AJ Dillon, has been one giant disappointment. The stars aligned for the Colliders with Aaron Jones missing the same two games that Ekeler did, but Dillon could only suck at football. A shame. The Colliders sure could use Ekeler in this one, especially with Mike Williams suffering a season ending knee injury (boo.) But if I were the Chargers, and I saw an easy matchup followed by a bye week, I’d probably keep Ekeler on ice.

The Colliders have been getting consistent scoring from their defense and their top-line skill position players McCaffrey and Jefferson. Unfortunately, Trevor Lawrence has been outplayed by Mac Jones and couldn’t even muster a win against the Texans. Concerning.

The Dream Team’s quarterback, Anthony Richardson, has outscored Trevor Lawrence despite appearing in 1.15 games compared to Lawrence’s 3 games. He’s been in the concussion protocol and the Dream Team are surely hoping to get him back. But they have a better-than-Mac-Jones insurance policy in Deshaun Watson, who seems to be heating up.

Now that Tyler Allgeier has scored Allgistouchdowns on the season, the running back situation is pretty scary. Najee Harris and Josh Jacobs used to be good, but simply aren’t anymore. That’s a tough break for the Dream Team. They look good at wide receiver, though, thanks to Michael Pittman returning to form and Keenan Allen dominating. They’re even getting good production out of Marquise “Hollywood” Brown.

The strength of their defense is at interior line, which is a boom or bust proposition. Since Buckner and Wilkins had quiet games this week, the Dream Team suffered. Of course, both are capable of busting out 30 points at a moment’s notice, so Oregon should remain competitive throughout the season.

I haven’t bet against the Colliders yet, so I won’t start now, even though the injuries are piling up. At some point Trevor Lawrence needs to break out with a 20-point game. Maybe it will be this week in London and I can watch the Pixar broadcast of it. Let’s pick the Colliders to take command of the division. After all, Batavia holds an 8-3 advantage in the series.

Bestine (1-2) @ Fransburg (2-1)

The Banthas lost but Ryan has to be happy the Bengals got into the win column. I do not care for their White Tiger costumes.

Fransburg’s undefeated season came to an end last week as Raheem Mostert fed them into the wood chipper. Aaron Donald also showed up for the Krakens, reminding us all he was still alive. Try not to swing your helmet at anyone, buddy. Remember how Aaron Donald got into some bar fight and beat some random person viciously? Yeah, the NFL wants you to memory hole that. Aaron Donald is a dick is what I’m saying.

Anyway, moving forward, the Banthas have had their struggles against the (r)EvoLUtion, going 4-7 all-time. Fransburg has to be happy that Lamar Jackson is getting going (104 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns last week.) He’s almost got as many points as Jared Goff now. Like the Dream Team, the Rev are struggling at running back. Gus Edwards was concussed and Khalil Herbert cannot succeed on the most doomed team in the NFL. Enter Kyren Williams, who Franssen astutely picked up for $1.00 on August 28th. Williams instantly won the starting job and Cam Akers doesn’t even play for the Rams anymore. Kool Guy Kyren is 4th in scoring among running backs after a subdued effort against the mighty White Cats. Williams is a great pickup, but there are literally no other viable running backs after that. Zach Charbonnet had his best game as a pro last week, but that was only 46 yards, folks. Kenneth Walker III scored two touchdowns and doesn’t seem to be on the verge of giving up the lead role.

Fransburg does have strength at wide receiver, though, with Tyreek Hill and Ja’Marr Chase. Add in target monster Puka Nacua and you’ve got some guys you can start. Chase caught 12 passes for 141 yards which is nice after a slow start. Beyond those three they have Aiyuk (good, but hurt) and Garrett Wilson (cursed to catch passes from his cousin Zach Wilson.)

Wow Hammond, that’s a lot of pixels for the Fransburg squad. What about Bestine? Good question. Fair, and to the point. Bestine paid $35 for James Conner and it doesn’t seem terrible. Arizona is failing spectacularly at tanking. D’Andre Swift has turned into a yardage machine with the Eagles. They’ve got a lot of money “locked” up with Tyler Lockett, who will give you 2 points or 20. Good luck with that! They started Adam “Ice” Thielen, who was rejuvenated by the Red Rocket taking over at QB in Carolina. 20 points for Adam Thielen? In this economy? Crazy. Ryan has to be hoping that Bryce Young never comes back. Stefon Diggs continues to be wide open in the middle of the field but nowhere near the field when they are close to the end zone. Kelce has scored in each of the games he’s been in. Overall, this chaotic Bestine team isn’t bad. They really need a playoff push this year given their insane money troubles next season. They have over $100 in dead cap hits next year and if they don’t cut anyone they’ll be $22 over the cap. BEFORE THE SEASON EVEN BEGINS.

Can they do it? Can they make a run?

Haha, no. They won’t even get past Fransburg this week.

North Point (1 -2) @ Marshfield (3-0)

Is anybody tired of the Eagles and their stupid “push Hurts into the end zone” play? It was kind of cool, I guess, the first time I saw it, but now I’m seeing it like 4 times a game. I’m also not sure why I keep getting fed Eagles action. The people at Red Zone (Scott Hanson version) seem to like them. OH, and while I’m on Red Zone I have to register another complaint. The stupid bit where Scott Hanson talks about the “witching hour” of games where “wins become losses and losses become wins” has to be the most annoying thing I’ve ever seen. I thought it was weird the first week but the dude says the same exact thing every goddamn week like it’s a real thing. It’s not.

THE ONLY WITCHING HOUR WE RECOGNIZE IN THIS HOUSE IS THAT EARLY EVENING BUT TOO-EARLY-FOR-BEDTIME WINDOW WHERE LITTLE KIDS ABSOLUTELY LOSE THEIR SHIT.

Jalen Hurts seems to be an average to below-average quarterback this year but his fantasy stock isn’t cratering because of the butt-push play. My guy threw two interceptions this week. One was directly into the waiting arms of Devin White, which I appreciated from a fantasy perspective. The Chitons were 0-2 for a reason before exploding for 169 points this week. It’s because they (cough cough) suck. Is Mattison ever going to have a double digit game again. Fuck and no. Bro tried to fumble like 3 times this week and he kept getting let off the hook. The Chitons went crazy because their defense went crazy. Terrell Bernard had two sacks, an interception, and a fumble recovery. I don’t think it’s sustainable. Recent waiver pickup Sean Murphy-Bunting had a forced fumble and recovery. Safety Jevon Holland had two forced fumbles. Look, you can’t play the Broncos every week. So I see the Chitons for what they are – a defending champion, sure, but moreover a paper tiger. The white kind.

How is Marshfield 3-0? They have the 8th best all-play record. Their roster is held together with duct tape and chicken wire. BUT…reinforcements are on the way. This week they get Alvin Kamara back from a suspension for fighting some randos in a club (hmm, I don’t recall Aaron Donald getting suspended for that.) The goddamn Indianapolis Colts are in first place in their division. I think that makes it more likely that Jonathan Taylor returns after week 4. Those two could give this middling offense a big boost. Russell Wilson is playing semi-competently and Jordan Addison seems to be the real deal. I’m not saying this roster is amazing but it could be good enough to go to the playoffs. And then, who knows what could happen? Last year the Chitons got 30 points out of Tom Fuckface Brady in the title game to deliver a championship to a clearly inferior team. I don’t rule that out for Marshfield.

But Josh, you say, who’s going to win this game? Well, as I try to scratch and claw my way past Enright in the overall standings I keep running into his bad teams somehow winning. I’m just going to accept that he’ll match me win for win out of spite. So let’s pick Marshfield to edge the Chitons this week.

Madtown (1-2 0-3) @ Linn County (0-3)

Madtown? More like Badtown, amirite?

Just kidding, buddy, I appreciate you helping me out by defeating my division rival. Oregon was the only Gold team to lose this week.

Justin Herbert struggled a bit last year because he and all his receivers were hurt. With everyone healthy, Herbert is not struggling. Not by a long shot, guys. He’s the number one rated fantasy quarterback, just ahead of Jordan Love (wtf? – Love has completed half his passes.) So it makes sense that Mike Williams would tear his ACL after a big game and put Herbert down a receiver. Here’s to hoping that Josh Palmer gets fucked and that Quentin Johnston fills in for Williams and exceeds expectations.

Madtown also has hero quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who ranks fifth among quarterbacks. Madtown would slay if this were a 2-QB league. This is not a 2-QB league, but it is a 2-RB league and Madtown is being Letdown by Breece Hall, last year’s number one pick. The Jets are cursed and Hall has 11 points on the season. Their other two running backs are having better luck, but there isn’t much to see after Etienne and Mixon. Yikes.

Their receiving corps is not better. They are littered with WR2s (I mean, NFL WR2s, not fantasy WR2s, which would be respectable.) I’m sorry, but Gabriel Davis is not and never will be a thing. But at least they traded away the #4 pick in this year’s draft for Skyy Moore. Man, Madtown kinda sucks.

However…

The Linn County Lumberjacks might suck worse! They are 0-3 and are being dismally led by the QB combo of Justin Fields and Geno Smith. To be fair, Geno Smith has more points than Trevor Lawrence. But you know who doesn’t? Justin Fields!

The Lumberjacks have been snakebit ever since they drafted Cam Akers and JK Dobbins in the same draft in 2020. Neither one has ever stayed healthy enough to do anything and this season was supposed to be big for both of them. Dobbins is essentially dead and Akers is a backup in Minnesota (for now – I don’t see Mattison holding onto the ball/that job.)

Part of being snakebit was getting the second pick in the draft, but the ‘Jacks and Lions’ fans are still waiting for Jahmyr Gibbs to break onto the scene. Last week he had 17 carries, but only converted them into 80 yards and no touchdowns. Javonte Williams either isn’t fully back from his injury or isn’t fully good at football. Like Herbert, he plays for a doomed team and will never be playing with a lead.

At wide receiver the ageless Mike Evans is pacing the team. Amari Cooper has also been good but he got robbed of a long touchdown last week by a whistle-happy ref. Jaylen Waddle is hurt. Odell Beckham is hurt (big surprise there.) Last year’s second pick overall, Treylon Burks, fucking sucks. Linn County’s monumental draft day failures are analogous to John Lynch’s blunder of drafting Trey Lance. Lynch lucked into Brock Purdy so he got a contract extension. Likewise, Linn County’s general manager is Jesse, who also owns the team. Lumberjack fans have to live with drafting ineptitude forever.

I predict Herbert will score 30 points and the Marauders will win 105-98.

Holley (2-1) @ Tooz Town (1-2)

Holley’s starters scored 104 points last week. Their bench scored 182. This was in large part to Devon Achane bursting onto the scene for nearly 40 points. It was the kind of game you’d expect from Jahmyr Gibbs.

It’s a tough situation, though, because Achane was backing up Mostert, who also scored 4 touchdowns. Who knew the Dolphins would put up seventy goddamn points? Despite Achane’s game, he’s still technically the backup. Do you start him? It’s not like Mostert was some kind of slouch.

They also got 15 points from CJ Stroud who has now done that two games in a row. Meanwhile Daniel Jones scored 2. Daniel Jones is 2 or 20 and you never know when. The Hawks are also in hell with Romeo Doubs, who’s scored 3 TDs in his two games on Holley’s bench and 2.90 points during his one start. Weirdly they started Jalin Hyatt for zero points.

I think they have enough good players, though, to be a competitive team, so long as they start the correct ones.

Tooz Town has lost two in a row after a solid opening game. The second ranked QB sat on the bench again while Dakota Prescott got owned by the Arizona Cardinals. It was remarkably strange to see Jaelen Phillips (1 point) get the start over Myles Garrett (23.25 points.) Seriously, what the fuck is up with that?You are paying the man $28.60 and you roll off of him because he has one bad game? You didn’t like his chances to get to Ryan Fucking Tannehill? Bow howdy.

The GIMB also started Aaron Jones and Christian Watson who didn’t play. Watson has yet to suit up this season and has logged 2 starts for the GIMB. Jones has played one game but has logged 3 starts for the GIMB. At least Zack Moss is good. Another reason Jonathan Taylor might hurry back.

Ben liked the Tooz Town roster last week, but didn’t factor in the Matt Eberflus-caliber coaching style they employ. Is that you on the bench DK Metcalf? You’re right, Christian Watson should start over you.

Personally, I like the GIMB roster but I like the Holley roster better. And I definitely trust Jeppsen to learn from his start/sit mistakes more quickly than Matuszak. Look for the Hawks to make better halftime adjustments and win this game.

Culver City (1-2) @ Cleveland (1-2)

The Krakens have been a solid team (and positioned for GOLD next year all along) but finally exploded for a victory. They are the first team to clear 200 points in a game this year. I imagine Derrick Henry will have more room to run against the Bengals than he had against the Browns. And maybe they won’t fall behind so quickly. But Tannehill might have something to say about that. Personally, if I were the Titans, I’d see what I have in Will Levis, the third string quarterback.

Miles Sanders and Derrick Henry should be “good enough” at running back and then the Krakens can showcase their solid receiving corps of AJ Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Terry Mclaurin-Brown, and Zay Brown-Flowers. The defense is surprisingly excellent with one hundred year old veterans Danielle Hunter and Aaron Donald.

And Mahomes is Mahomes. Your returning Immersion MVP who now has Kelce back.

The Battery put up good numbers last week as Josh Allen remembered he’s allowed to run the ball. Jerome Ford looked like garbage but he scored two touchdowns, so, FANTASY! Davante Adams is so good that even Garoppolo can’t screw it up. And the Battery have to like what they see in wide receiver Tank Dell, who has scored 16 points in each of his last two games. Not bad for pick 4.06.

Still, I don’t see the Battery matching up in this one. They generally have an advantage at quarterback, with Josh Allen, but that advantage is neutralized when they play against Mahomes. I like the Krakens D better, so I’m picking Culver City to start a run here.

In Closing

Fantasy football is wild. I did not expect to see team to score 70, nor did I expect to see two running backs score 4 touchdowns each on the same team. I did not like seeing the injuries and it seems like a lot of hamstrings, heels, and knee ligaments are popping off this season. Boo.

I’m fascinated by the better-than-expected play of the Colts, Texans, and Cardinals. I can’t believe the Bears suck as hard as they do. I have no idea who is going to win that Bears-Broncos game. The Vikings and Chargers are masters of giving the game away and both teams tried to fuck it up at the end. But nobody can fuck it up like Kirk Cousins can fuck it up. He didn’t hear the play and he called his own dud with the game on the line. LITERALLY THE EXACT THING HAPPENED LAST YEAR I SAW IT ON THAT QUARTERBACK SERIES ON NETFLIX.

I’m hoping the 49ers can continue to dominate and that no more of my fantasy players get injured. Also I’m glad Kwity Paye is “payeing” off 3 years into his contract.

Packers and Lions on Thursday Night Football? Haven’t we already seen the Lions on a Thursday night game? I hope the Lions destroy the Packers because the Packers suck and I’m sick of seeing them win bullshit games against bad teams.

Enjoy the games everyone! May all of your wildest fantasy football dreams come true.

© 2023, Josh Hammond. All rights reserved.