Week 14 Preview

Thanks to the NFL imposing its will on the weak NFL Players Association, we have an extra regular season game.

Winners

Marshfield (7-6), Culver City (4-9), North Point (9-4), Bestine (9-4), Oregon (7-6), Linn County (6-7)

Prediction Record

Week 13: 5-1

Overall: 44-36

I was 1.10 points away from pulling the clean sweep last week. The Linn County win made things much tighter in the Bronze Division.

2022 Divisions (if they were made today)

Marshfield is gelling at the right time, and Cleveland is fading fast. The conferences will be SET IN STONE after this week is over, so it’s important for teams to SCORE BIG.

Week 14 Matchups

Before we get into the nitty-gritty of the playoff scenarios, I want to touch on something else that is frustratingly complex: Christmas shopping.

I had heard tell of supply-chain issues (thanks NPR) and so I began hounding my children for Christmas lists in November, and even started ordering gifts around Thanksgiving. Some of the things I ordered way back then are just now ready to ship; other orders were just straight up cancelled. If you go on Amazon now there are very few things that will arrive before Christmas.

My six year old wants a Magic Mixies Cauldron, because she is nothing if not susceptible to advertising. Basically this is a cheap stuffed animal that you “unbox” by “casting a spell” which makes your cauldron release steam. It costs $70, but you can’t have it for $70 you simpleton, you sweet summer child. It is being sold for over $100 on the secondary market if you can get it at all.

I hope Santa can come through because I’m not spending $100 on a stuffed animal. My kid will just have to make do with the other 78 stuffed animals she has. Instead of Christmas, we need a Toy Rapture at my house.

The oldest wants a laptop, which is fair because she’s in high school now. Oh, but it can’t be a$300 chromebook type deal. No, Ms. Fancy Pants wants a MacBook Air. Maybe it’s because both of her parents have one. But mine is from 2016. We have this thing in my family where I am always the one with the oldest electronic device (laptop, cellphone, etc) because I am the only one that actually takes care of my shit. Now my kid wants to have a better computer than me? Not on my watch.

There is not a cellphone case alive that can prevent my wife from breaking her phone. There should be a reality show where teams compete to design the ultimate cell phone case and then have their dreams crushed when the phone falls out of her purse as she walks to the car and she backs over it in the driveway.

My middle child’s wish list consists of gifts exclusively on Etsy, which all take 6 months to produce by hand and where the price of shipping doubles the total. Christmas is cancelled is what I’m saying.

All I want for Christmas is a playoff spot (and, like, a million dollars.) But that dream might be running into supply-chain issues of its own.

GOLD

Marshfield, Tooz Town, and Culver City are all in (even though Marshfield is the only team that deserves to be.) Even if Holley manages to beat the Krakens this week, they will be on the losing end of the division record and points scored tiebreaker.

SILVER

My head hurts. For North Point, Bestine, and Batavia, it’s win and you’re in. Cleveland needs to win to force a 3-way tie for the final playoff spot. Geez, let me try to figure this out *carries the 1, applies Magic Mixie potion*…POOF.

If I’m reading this correctly, then the first tie-breaker would be a head-to-head record expressed as a winning percentage among the tied teams. Next would be division record and then points scored.

If North Point and Cleveland win, then Batavia would be 2-2 in the H2H among the 3 tied teams, Bestine would be 2-2, and Cleveland would be 2-2. That would mean the next tiebreaker would come into effect, which is division record. Batavia would be 2-4 and the odd man out, so then, what, would it go to points scored to determine who goes between Cleveland and Bestine? Those two are pretty close in points scored now.

If Bestine and Cleveland win, then the three tied teams would be North Point, Batavia, and Bestine. Batavia would be 2-2 in the H2H among the 3 tied teams, Bestine would be 2-2, and North Point would be 2-2, which would then make it go to division record, which would one again put Batavia on the outside looking in. Bestine would go to the playoffs with the superior division record (hence, Bestine is win and you’re in.)

It will be a wild Week 14 in the Silver Division.

BRONZE

Adam’s Christmas was ruined by Linn County somehow stepping up and beating the (r)EvoLUtion by 1.10 points, which puts their playoff hopes in serious jeopardy.

If Oregon wins, they claim the lone playoff spot due to a superior division record. Fransburg needs a win plus an Oregon loss to go.

If both Fransburg and Oregon lose, then there is a 3-way tie for first between Fransburg, Oregon, and Linn County(!). If that were to happen, then Linn County would be 4-0 in H2H among the three tied teams and would go to the playoffs!

Madtown is out. Sorry Matt.

Cleveland (8-5) @ Batavia (9-4)

Cleveland has lost 3 in a row, fulfilling the prophecy of the Cleveland Slide foretold by Ben Pershey. They barely cracked 100 last week and are on life support. Still, they could change their fortunes this week with a win over an injury-riddled Batavia squad.

The Colliders were without a bunch of their RBs last week, and they switched Kenneth Gainwell to Boston Scott at the last minute with predictable results. This week they get Kamara back, but David Montgomery is nursing not one, not two, but three injuries. It remains to be seen if the Colliders will ever field 2 healthy running backs again.

With Mac Jones (of 3 passes last week fame) on the bye, and Daniel Jones on the shelf, the Colliders’ playoff hopes will rest on the golden arm of Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence has 9 passing touchdowns and 14 turnovers on the year, so I’m feeling pretty good about my chances. Just kidding. I’m actually thinking about starting Mac Jones to avoid the negative score out of the QB position.

Along with David Montgomery possibly sitting, Mike Williams is on the Covid list. He probably did his own research (just kidding, I’m actually hoping he is vaxxed and gets a negative test before Sunday so he can catch 3 passes for 70 yards which sounds good but actually isn’t that helpful. He’s a close contact of Keenan Allen, who actually got the Rona.) Darren Waller may or may not play, but Alvin Kamara finally practiced so that’s something.

Fans will want to tune into this one to see an epic battle between two top-10 punters.

Last week I picked against myself, but that Tecmo Whine tactic didn’t work. A Batavia loss ends their playoff hopes, but let’s pray for a Christmas miracle: Alvin Kamara scores 3 times and Trevor Lawrence only turns it over twice en route to 8 points. COLLIDERS WIN (I hope, fervently.)

North Point (9-4) @ Bestine (9-4)

It’s so annoying that Tom assembled a collection of nobodies who actually turned out to be good. Tom $1 Brady scored 23 last week, and both dumb running backs scored touchdowns. Chris Godwin caught 15 passes. Even their undrafted journeyman linebacker for the 49ers has scored 38 points over the last two weeks. Come on, man.

Bestine has won 3 in a row after being written off by some in the media. Now they control their own destiny. They have two stud running backs of their own in Elliott and Fournette, which is a rare feat these days. Joe Burrow hurt the pinkie on his throwing hand (that thing was swollen like nobody’s business) and he didn’t practice yesterday. If he can get healthy enough he should have success against the 49ers’ suspect pass defense. Burrow has thrown a passing touchdown in every game, and has 23 on the year, and yet doesn’t have any 20-point games. Those 14 interceptions aren’t helping.

If the Banthas have a weakness (outside of their owner), it’s at wide receiver, where their top guys right now are Tee Higgins and Tyler Lockett. Lockett took that holdout money and commenced sucking. Higgins might be hurt this week.

Meanwhile, the Chitons have the unstoppable Cordarrelle Patterson and a rejuvenated Chris Godwin. Therefore, they will win.

Bestine could still make the playoffs with a loss (I think) if they score a lot of points.

Fransburg (7-6) @ Madtown (4-9)

It’s incredible that Fransburg will likely overtake the Colliders as the highest scoring team in the league this week and yet they can’t buy a win in the Bronze Division. Last week’s loss was DEVASTATING in that it was such a close game and that it came at the worst possible time. Now they have to win and hope for a Dream Team loss to the Lumberjacks, who have looked pretty good lately.

They should win. They are playing the Marauders. Of course, they thought they beat the Marauders in week 1, only to have the score reversed on Thursday (something Adam was surely rooting for today with the Lumberjacks game, but didn’t come to fruition). That week 1 score was the highest for Madtown all year, though, so I’m not looking for any repeat. Fransburg needs to win, and they will win. But will the Dream Team shut the door on their playoff dreams? I’ll talk about this and more in the next section.

(Apologies to Matt, but there is just nothing to say about the Marauders. Except that Gabriel Davis scored a touchdown because I made fun of him.)

(I should make fun of my own players so they score touchdowns.)

Oregon (7-6) @ Linn County (6-7)

It looks like Javonte Williams is the guy now, so better late than never I guess. Josh Allen should have better luck this week if he’s not throwing into 45mph winds, and last I heard there wasn’t supposed to be a hurricane in Tampa where the Bills are playing. They scored a lot of points last week and could score even more this week.

But they didn’t score as much as the Dream Team did. Oregon got boom games from George Kittle and Daniel Sorensen (INT return for a TD) and steady production from their running backs. It’s a formula that could clinch the division for them should they replicate it this week.

Linn County has to be happy with Micah Parsons, who has 10 sacks on the year. If he’s reclassified as a DE next year it’s ON. The Cowboys play the FootballTeam this week, so chances are good he’ll collect some more sacks. It could be enough to tip the scales in favor of the Lumberjacks. Not only that, but they have productive defensive backs playing against Washington in Trevon Diggs and Jayron Kearse. This matchup could be tasty for ye olde ‘jacks.

Oregon is struggling at quarterback, Batavia style. Bum-ass Carson Wentz is on the bye, making way for bum-ass Ryan Tannehill, who has scored 9 points over his last two games (5 interceptions!). Sadly for Oregon, Deshaun Watson and Trey Lance didn’t work out this year. The good news is that Tannehill gets the Jaguars this week. Last time they played Jacksonville Tannehill only scored 10 points, but that’s because Derrick Henry rushed for 130 yards and 3 touchdowns. God I miss Derrick Henry. At any rate, Tannehill will be called upon to do more than hand the ball off to Derrick Henry, and the Jags defense will be more than willing to let him have his way with them, provided they can block Josh Allen (the defensive end, not the quarterback).

Even so, I still think the considerable edge goes to Josh Allen (the quarterback) which is why I’m going to pick the Lumberjacks to get the win. CHAOS!

The (r)EvoLution would be much obliged, but doesn’t a little part of you want to see the Lumberjacks take down this division in the end? Coming at you like a dark horse? Of course, they need help from Madtown to pull that off, and they aren’t called the Badtown MaFRAUDers for nothing.

Tooz Town (5-8) @ Marshfield (7-6)

The GIMB got Kyler Murray back after a 4-week absence and he responded with 27 points. They also have Aaron Jones back, who should be fully healthy after the bye. Last time he played the Bears he scored 14.80 points. The Bears are worse now than they were then.

James Robinson is hurt, though, and not practicing much. Plus, he’s in Urban Meyer’s doghouse for not being named Travis Etienne. Robinson gets punished so much harder for turnovers than the other Jaguars who are committing more of them. SMDH.

Tooz Town actually has a lineup in this week, which portends calamity for Marshfield. The Pirates saw Joe Mixon fumble the ball away and get mostly stoned all game long. Of course, it’s the Joe Mixon Miracle Season so he salvaged an 8-point game with a touchdown. He’s been sitting out this week with a mysterious illness. If he doesn’t go, the Pirates are dead in the water.

Fuck it, they’re dead anyway. Tooz Town is gonna win! Enjoy the playoffs you mediocre sons of bitches.

Holley (3-10) @ Culver City (4-9)

This is going to be the second year in a row that the Krakens make the playoffs with only 5 wins. It’s an outrage! A goddamn travesty! THANK GOD we changed the division alignment formula for next year.

The Pirates only mustered 120 points against the Hawks last week, but Holley outdid them with a stellar 89-point showing. There is no reason to believe they will be any better this week. In fact, they’ll probably be worse.

Elijah Moore and Patrick Mahomes should be able to outscore the entire Hawks team, so look for Culver City to win in a laugher.

Unless…

A Christmas miracle?

Haha, no, we have a better chance of ordering an iPad and getting it before Christmas than the Hawks have at winning ever again this season. They’ll be the first team to win the Most Futile Franchise Award 4 times. Also the first (and only) team to win it 3 times. They suck, is what I’m saying. But there’s always next year.

Enjoy the games, everyone. May you find success in your own shopping adventures, and may all of your holiday dreams come true.

© 2021, Josh Hammond. All rights reserved.