AP – Super Genius or Fraud?
First of all, let me acknowledge that it takes some balls (and lots of your own free time) to put your preseason predictions out there for 12 teams, especially when each of these teams has a roster of 30+ player encompassing 32 NFL teams. I totally respect that. It takes little effort to look back from ones arm chair and criticize these choices – even a monkey could do it. Well, this monkey (me) is going to do it. I’ll be simple and to the point.
In this article, I will attempt to look back and dissect the predictions of Adam (Super Genius). Article here – Sept 8, 2011.
Many of us wrote off the “Super Genius” after he tried unsuccessfully to rank his own team as the best, and then mysteriously disappeared when it was obvious that they weren’t. Or maybe that was just me. Anyway, aside from that blunder, the “Super Genius” was actually on to something.
If we use Points For as our only indicator of how good a team actually is, and ±2 as an acceptable margin for error, then the “Super Genius” actually had some pretty solid preseason rankings:
The yellow indicates a out-of-wack prediction or good/bad luck, while the gray cells are, well, the gray area in between
Given everyone over-estimates their own team and one cannot predict all the moves a team can and will make during the course of a season, its natural that he overestimated his own team – I would have ranked my team #1 for sure as well, no matter how good they actually were. Aside from his own team, he damn near nailed all of the non expansion teams and aside from totally underestimating the Doctors, had the expansion franchises pretty close too (would’ve been better if the Dragons had actually spent some money).
For the hell of it, lets look at the next column – Luck. Instead of going into deeper analysis, Luck is based simply on your final seeding versus Points For. Again, lets assume ±2 is acceptable. Then, by far, the Banthas were the luckiest team in the Immersion. This also reveals that the Gridiron Gangs improbable playoff run that fell short was actually, not so improbable. On the other side of the coin, the Doctors were incredibly unlucky, including having to win their final game to avoid being the Most Futile Franchise. If only the Colliders had been as unlucky as the Doctors …
So there you have it. Perhaps the “Super Genius” wasn’t exactly Nostradamus, but he was pretty close. I think I speak for all of the Immersion when I say I hope he makes an emphatic return for 2012.
© 2012, Jason Enright. All rights reserved.
Nice article! I totally forgot about the “super genius” since he stopped writing just as my team was establishing itself is the dominant force in the league (with points scored at least.) I do hope we get some more features from Adam next season, even if they are incredibly biased. I was totally surprised that the Banthas won their division, but it is kind of cool that he gets to rename a division called “Property of the Chitons.” Not anymore, son!
Awesome article. I totally deserve to get called out for stopping right when the (r)EvoLUtion took a dive. It was coincidental – I kept meaning to keep writing, but my stupid “work schedule” got in the way. New classes, who needs ’em?
Honestly, though, I don’t think it was too much of a stretch to give Fransburg the preseason nod. Enright’s team would have been first if he were writing, but I can’t really see Hammond honestly ranking his team first back in August.
What’s really sad is that my team was built to win in 2011, got demolished by injuries, and now looks pretty bad for the future. The freaking cupboard is bare, man. Conversely, I think last year’s good teams, including the Marauders, look to be strong in 2012.
That’s my biggest concern. It took Rodgers and Megatron having HISTORICALLY GOOD SEASONS to put me into contention. If those guys average 14 points a game instead of 20 points a game, do I still win? I don’t know. Do I? I still don’t know. I feel like I have to really nail this draft to secure my future, especially with Rodgers and Foster running out of contract after this season.
At least you assholes have a draft … and dont have like 3+ players coming back from knee injuries.
Ha! We are assholes.