The Complete History of #1 Draft Picks

The SCUFFLE Immersion was born in 2010, via a “live auction,” where owners took turns putting players up and bidding until a player was won. I want to say we did this with the chat function on…something…and then I entered the player names into a form. Judging by the entry dates, we did this over the course of three different days.

The next season, 2011, marked the first time we did a draft. We were such babies, such sweet summer children, and we didn’t realize that a 7-round draft was largely overkill. In those days, any free agent could also be drafted along with rookies. We probably thought seven rounds were necessary because of individual defensive players.

We repeated this format in 2012, but then in 2013 we wised up, made it a rookie-only draft, and limited it to five rounds.

Eventually, we made adjustments to the slotted salary schedule so that it made sense to draft defensive tackles and even punters in the in the fifth round. Now, the draft is nearly perfect.

What’s not perfect is our drafting. Having looked closely at all of the draft since 2011, I can safely say that there are very few players who turn out to be good. And most owners suck at drafting. It’s nice, actually. Takes the pressure off.

So the focus of today’s article is to look at the number one draft pick, which is currently held by the Madtown Marauders, who pried it out of the cold dead hands of the Oregon Dream Team, who somehow got the #1 pick four years in a row.

2011 – Mark Ingram – Sullivan’s Island Silvertips

Anybody can look good against the 49ers.

Josh Weldin (RIP) didn’t surprise anyone with the consensus number one pick in Mark Ingram. The running back out of Alabama was widely regarded as a “world beater” and was drafted by the Saints in the first round. Ingram is safely considered a bust because some of the players drafted after him were AJ Green, Julio Jones, Cam Newton, and JJ Watt.

But is he a bust? If you’re drafting a guy 1st overall you want him to be a top-12 running back. I mean, hell, you at least want him to be a top-24 running back to justify starting him every week. So, how has he done?

YearRB Rank
201147
201242
201374
201415
201514
20169
20176
201830
20197
202073
202149

Remarkably, Ingram’s best performance (#6 overall) came in 2017, where he was the second best running back on his own team. Alvin Kamara finished third in RB scoring that year. Still, some interesting things jump out. Even though Ingram averages 55.5 rushing yards per game, he is the Saints all-time rushing leader. He is the fourth highest scoring running back of all-time in the Immersion. That seems crazy!

So, was he a good pick at #1 overall? If we were to do that draft over, the number one pick probably should have been Julio Jones or JJ Watt.

2012 – Andrew Luck – Kensington Dragons

Andrew Luck was pretty good while he lasted.

Nick Stukas was trying to run a fantasy team from London, England and the league was pretty new. All of this is to say that it was surprising to see a signal caller go first overall in a league that only requires you to start one quarterback. Luck was a sure thing, though, so most of us cut Stukas some slack.

So, if you’re going to take a quarterback first overall, he better be a top-12 quarterback (and preferably top-3). How did Luck do?

YearQB Rank
201210
20136
20142
201527
20164
20184

Andrew Luck certainly lived up to the draft pick, in terms of seasons in the top-5, but he missed all of 2017 and retired abruptly after 2018 (because he is also very smart.) It’s also pretty impressive that Luck finished in the top-10 at quarterback as a rookie.

A lot of high draft picks flamed out of the 2012 draft (Trent Richardson, RGIII, Doug Martin, the list goes on and on) but if you had a redo, then maybe you draft Russell Wilson first overall because of longevity and consistent productivity. Still, Luck wasn’t a terrible first pick.

2013 – Giovani Bernard – Oregon Dream Team

The Oregon Dream Team got it wrong.

Nope. This was the wrong guy.

To be fair, Bernard was viewed as “the guy” in a draft class the whole world got wrong.

He’s always good for, say 90 points, but that puts him the same rarefied air as Rashad Jennings and Duke Johnson. Not what you want from the number one pick overall.

2013 wasn’t a particularly good draft class, but most would probably make the case that Le’Veon Bell should have gone first. Even though he foolishly held out of the 2018 season, he had 3 seasons where he eclipsed 200 points before that.

If you’re going for consistent production, maybe DeAndre Hopkins or even Keenan Allen is your man.

2014 – Carlos Hyde – Holley Hawks

The Hyde Amendment: amending your first pick so it’s not Carlos Hyde.

Man, this seemed like a slam dunk at the time. Frank Gore was old. Marcus Lattimore was dead. The 49ers needed a running back and a stud from Ohio State seemed like the guy to pick.

Hyde has sincerely underwhelmed, and his best seasons came in 2016 and 2017, where he ranked 16th and 9th among running backs, respectively.

Many of the experts rightly predicted that you should take a wide receiver in this remarkable class of them. Some notable guys not named Carlos Hyde were Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr., Allen Robinson, and Davante Adams.

If you wanted a running back, then your best bet probably would have been Devonta Freeman. On defense, you could have had Khalil Mack or Aaron Donald. Damn, this was a good draft class.

2015 – Todd Gurley – Sullivan’s Island Silvertips

Gurley was great, man.

Gurley was obviously the pick here, and he didn’t disappoint, unless you were hoping he’d manage an injury-free and long career.

That rarely happens, but Gurley put up 6 productive seasons, including back-to-back seasons as the number-one ranked running back in 2017 and 2018. For his efforts, Gurley was awarded the largest contract in Immersion history, making $93.50 in 2019.

Todd Gurley is out of football but owns a part of a Fan Controlled Football League. He seems to be living his best life.

2016 – Ezekiel Elliott – Fransburg (r)EvoLUtion

Fransburg didn’t fumble this pick.

Elliott was that rare marriage of talent and situation, and so was a consensus number one pick. Fransburg didn’t screw it up.

He finished as the #2 running back his rookie season, with only David Johnson’s (then) record setting season outshining him. He finished #13 the next year, despite missing six games (he ranked number 2 on a points per game basis among running backs.)

He finished fifth in 2018 and led the Colliders to a championship. In 2019 he finished third. His “worst” year, from a game-by-game production standpoint was 2020, and he still finished 11th. Last year he was the 6th best running back.

Elliott ranks 6th in overall points by a running back and he’s logged roughly half the seasons of the guys ahead of him.

Another good player from that draft was Derrick Henry, but he took a little while to get going, so he still trails Elliott in total fantasy points.

Hard to believe the Cowboys got Dak Prescott in the same draft. Prescott has been mad productive as well.

2017 – Leonard Fournette – Fransburg (r)EvoLUtion

Somehow this guy was like the 6th best RB of the class.

The 2017 draft class was incredible and you almost couldn’t go wrong with this pick.

Fransburg went wrong.

Fournette has been up and down, but he hasn’t ever been a top-5 running back, whereas other guys in this same class have. Maybe that’s why Franssen unloaded him after his rookie season, where he finished 8th in scoring.

He had a bit of a resurgence last year, once again finishing 8th among running backs, but sightings of “Fat Lenny” have been reported at training camp this year.

So who should have gone number one? Take your pick: Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, and Joe Mixon have all outperformed Fournette. Even James Conner has been better.

Maybe a quarterback is the call here. Nobody would fault you for drafting Patrick Mahomes first overall. Hell, even Deshaun Watson wouldn’t be the worst pick.

Wide receiver? Everybody said you should take Corey Davis but everyone was wrong. You should have taken Cooper Kupp, or maybe JuJu Smith-Schuster or Chris Godwin.

Regardless, what a great draft class. The upcoming 2022 draft class is…not this.

2018 – Saquon Barkley – Oregon Dream Team

Saquon was amazing in his rookie year.

This pick marked the first of the four-in-a-row number one picks for the Oregon Dream. You could build a franchise around something like that!

Barkley was the everyone’s number one pick and he lived up to the hype during his rookie season, scoring 266 points, second only to Todd Gurley.

Unfortunately, it’s been all downhill from there. Barkley has missed 20 games since his rookie year (21 if you count the game where he got hurt immediately) and he looked pretty bad last year in the games he did play, averaging around 7 points per contest.

Despite this, he commanded $50 from the Marshfield Pirates in the auction, who hope to resurrect his career.

The first eight picks in the draft were running backs. Aside from Nick Chubb, none of the others panned out. The best wide receivers taken were DJ Moore and Calvin Ridley (gambling suspension.) Maybe the best pick of the draft was at quarterback, where Josh Allen repeated as offensive MVP last year (Lamar Jackson was also taken in this draft.)

And now we have to take more of a “jury’s still out” approach since the next few drafts are still pretty new.

2019 – Josh Jacobs – Oregon Dream Team

You’d probably take this guy first overall again.

Jacobs was rated as a first-tier pick by Dynasty League Football, hilariously behind N’Keal Harry. So far, he’s been a pretty decent back, reliable if not elite.

The first three picks were Jacobs, David Montgomery, and Miles Sanders, and of those Jacobs seems to have been the most consistent. Here are their ranks among running backs:

YearJacobsMontgomerySanders
2019192415
20208424
2021111855

So maybe a running back wasn’t the way to go in this draft. What about wide receiver? Obviously not N’Keal Harry. There were some pretty good ones in this draft though: DK Metcalf, AJ Brown, Deebo Samuel, Diontae Johnson and Terry McLaurin. Quarterback Kyler Murray was also taken in this draft.

On the defensive side of the ball you’ve got Devin White, Nick Bosa, and Christian Wilkins.

It may turn out that a wide receiver would be better in the long run, but remember you can only control your rookies for five years so you have to hope you can hit on that running back.

2020 – Clyde Edwards-Helaire – Oregon Dream Team

The Chiefs don’t actually run the ball all that much.

A fast guy going to the Kansas City Chiefs was always going to be a trap. Jonathan Taylor should have been the pick here. I was a slut for Taylor at the time. You can ask Adam. I talked to him about it a lot.

A lot of people were high on Edwards-Helaire, though, so you can’t fault the Dream Team too much. Except I do. Cause I would have taken Taylor.

Turns out the Chiefs haven’t had much use for CEH. In 2020 he was the 23rd best running back and last year he was 40th, just behind Eagles third string back Kenneth Gainwell.

You know how Taylor’s done, right? He ranked 5th as a rookie and 1st last year.

Even if you didn’t like Taylor (cause you are dumb or something) then you could have had D’Andre Swift, whose had a couple of nice seasons. Justin Jefferson looks to be a top-3 wide receiver, and maybe someday CeeDee Lamb will put it all together. You could have also had Joe Burrow, who led his team to the goddamn Super Bowl in his second season.

Of course, this draft class is young, so there’s still time for CEH to become what many thought he could be. At the very least he’s a better prospect than Henry Ruggs.

2021 – Najee Harris – Oregon Dream Team

Nice selection here.

Najee Harris and Ja’Marr Chase were the headliners of this draft, and if you wanted immediate bang for your buck you’d probably take the running back, who was set to start right away.

Harris finished fourth among running backs his rookie year. Nice.

Ja’Marr Chase was drafted second overall, and he finished fifth among wide receivers, producing that bang for your buck you don’t often see out of first-year wideouts.

Playing it forward, you have to think Chase has the edge, but you never know.

11 Years, 10 Running Backs, and 1 Quarterback

The number one pick in the draft has been dominated by running backs, because unlike the NFL, it’s a position of scarcity in the Immersion. The NFL has become a pass-first league, and your best bet is always a wide receiver, but if you’re forced to start two running backs then you’re going to want to get one in the draft.

It’s likely that Breece Hall will go first overall and continue the running back streak. It seems as though this draft class is especially bereft of decent running backs, and it will be fun to look back in a few years to see some third round guy turning out to be the best one.

Of course, they don’t call them Madtown for nothing. Who’s to say they won’t take that defensive end out of Jacksonville? Or the Detroit one? There’s plenty of defensive ends to blow the first pick on.

At any rate, it’s fun to look back at the draft. I suggest you do the same, and come up with your own angle on the upcoming draft.

And now to breathlessly monitor training camp. Adios!

© 2022, Josh Hammond. All rights reserved.

About Josh Hammond 222 Articles
Commissioner. Three-time champion (2011, 2016, 2018.) Keeper of spreadsheets.

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