Playoff Scenarios?

Bear with me as I try to puzzle this out.

Division Winners

The Gas Giants

If the Madtown Marauders win, then they are the division champions. They can still win the division with a loss and a Fransburg win. The only way that Batavia can steal the division is if the Marauders lose to Kensington, and the Colliders beat Fransburg, while outscoring the Marauders by 1.1 points.

Unscientific odds of winning the division:

Madtown: 87.5%

Batavia: 12.5%

Kensington: 0%

Fransburg: 0%

Han Jobs, Done Solo

This division is just ridiculous. Sullivan’s Island wraps it up by winning. They can lose and still win the division with a North Point win. The only scenario in which the Silvertips cede the division is if Bestine beats them, and Kamino beats North Point. Kamino can win by virtue of the fourth tie breaker, points scored, where Kamino edges the Silvertips by about 75 points.

Unscientific odds of winning the division:

Sullivan’s Island: 75%

Kamino: 25%

Bestine: 0%

North Point: 0%

Beaver Nation

This one is easy. The Pirates have locked it up, by virtue of being very good, and playing in a very bad division.

Unscientific odds of winning the division:

Marshfield: 100%

DownState: 0%

Sweet Home: 0%

Oregon: 0%

Wild Cards

Two of the wildcards have a high probability of occurring. Assuming Batavia doesn’t win the division, then they will be the #4 seed, regardless of whether or not they win this week. Kensington is almost assured the #5 seed. Adam was a little pessimistic when he posted his clear path to the playoffs. If he wins this week, he is in, and will nab the #6 seed. If Adam’s clear path description were to come from fruition, then he would earn the #5 seed and Kensington would fall to #6. A Fransburg win guarantees that all four teams in The Gas Giants division would make the playoffs (because the only other scenario in which a team would be 7-6 is the Silvertips – and 7-6 would make them the division winner.)

If Fransburg loses this week, then their playoff chances start to dim. A loss would put them at 6-7, which would mean we’d go to a frenzied tiebreaker among a multitude of 6-7 teams. In fact, there are 16 possible scenarios, which I will attempt to explain in my next article (unless I run out of time, which is pretty likely, given how crazy that situation would be.)

© 2012, Josh Hammond. All rights reserved.